#14 Moyo - Dead Aid

"It has long seemed to me problematic, and even a little embarrassing, that so much of the public debate about Africa's economic problems should be conducted by non-African white men. From the economists to the rock stars, the African discussion has been colonized as surely as the Africa continent was a century ago." - Niall Ferguson

Dead Aid: Why Aid is Not Working and How There is Another Way for Africa - Dambisa Moyo

Dead Aid proposes just what it suggests - the death of aid.

 

This is an excoriating and engaging assessment of aid, presenting both the story of Africa's failed past under its shackles as well as an envisioned successful future free from it. Dambisa Moyo 'makes a compelling case for a new approach' (Kofi Annan) to development in Africa; one that is presented in an honest and unapologetic way. It is time for a new era of development.

 

Side note: the aid addressed is not humanitarian/emergency aid, but rather concessional loans/grants.

 

The first thing that comes to my mind when I hear the word 'aid' is an image of a dazed black child with flies hanging around their head, and a voice-over of someone pleading me to text XYZ and donate X pounds to help give this child a future. From its innocent beginnings based upon the success of the Marshall Plan in helping the reconstruction of Europe following WW2, aid in Africa has grown into a culture of moral obligations whereby governments are judged by how much they pledge, celebrities are praised for their humbling assistance, and it is seen as an innate, unspoken necessity that the West helps Africa - it has become embedded in our psyches that aid is the answer to Africa. I have never encountered an explicit rejection of aid before; sure, I had read of the negative implications that it had generated and marvelled at the corruption and regression it had manifested, but I had always simply fallen into the cyclical indoctrination that aid was the answer. How to solve the problems that aid had generated? Send more aid - just a different type. Fundamentally: send more aid to solve the problem of aid. Ironic? If you remove the implications and devastation it has caused, the idea is simply farcical. The primary thesis of Moyo's argument is that aid is the disease of which it pretends to be the cure. She argues that a series of phone calls needs to be made outlining basically, that the 'aid taps' are going to be turned off finitely in 5 years time, slowly reducing African countries' dependance on it year by year. Otherwise, why would African governments turn to other more developmentally sustainable but less easily attainable sources of GDP, when they can quite happily exist upon money sent to them freely by aid donors?

 

Although I agree with Moyo in that aid has precipitated more damage than it has helped the development of African countries, and with her ideal of a world without aid, I wasn't entirely convinced by the theoretical assumption that aid, specifically in itself, is the cause of all the problems. I would argue conversely that it is the management and implementation of aid that has led to the negative implications that have arisen. Perhaps aid was given in the wrong form, at the wrong time, or with the wrong motivations? Evidence that aid itself is not an entirely evil ideal is illustrated by the success of the Marshall plan in the mid-20th century; the plan involved concessional loans to European countries by the US so as to help them recover from the destruction of WW2. Two important factors:

1) The aid given did not constitute the majority of the receiving countries' GDP.

2) The fourteen countries receiving aid, including the UK, Germany, Austria and Norway, already had functioning economies and infrastructural developments (at least, before the war - anyway, they had been achieved and could be re-attained).  

Now compare this with the state of the African countries receiving aid: the predominant characteristics denote countries which lack[ed] sufficient economic and political development, where aid comprises the majority of their GDP. There was little (if not nothing) for the aid to help develop - no structured plans or investments opens the way for manipulation and corruption of aid. This, coupled with the way in which aid is often blindly given and managed, will perhaps inevitably encourage corruption and disaster. Hence, fundamentally aid is not the source of Africa's failure - it is the way in which aid has been managed, the environment into which it has been fed, and the motivations (take the cold war motives of blindly gaining allies, regardless of who their support fed - be it barbarous, egotistic dictators or otherwise) behind aid. One may even go so far as to argue that the reason why aid has not worked in Africa, is because it is a Eurocentric/West-centric (is that a word???) ideal - based upon European/Western success, implemented by the West. Regardless, it is surely not aid itself in the most basic of principles that is responsible. Whatever you think about aid and its relation to Africa's economic failure, Moyo's suggested alternatives are worth considering.

 

"Study, after study, after study (many of them, the donors' own) have shown that, after many decades and many millions of dollars, aid has had no appreciable impact on development. For example, Clemens et al. (2004) concede no long-term impact of aid on growth. Hadjimichael (1995) and Reichel (1995) find a negative relationship between savings and aid. Boone (1996) concludes that aid has financed consumption rather than investment; and foreign aid was shown to increase unproductive public consumption and fail to promote investment."

- page 46

 

Before discussing Moyo's propositions, I'll quickly conclusively list some of the implications she underlines due to aid in Africa:

• Tension between the Macro and the Micro (I have never studied Economics nor economic theories before, so this was all new and challenging to me - would recommend reading up on it briefly prior to tackling the challenges of Moyo's writings (or like me, ask some of your friends who study Economics to give you a mini lesson...)). The example Moyo uses to illustrate this tension is of a mosquito-net supplier: although donors sending in supplies of mosquito nets may seem great, it inevitably puts the local supplier out of a job, which in turn leads to a negative multiplier effect and gradual spiral of decline.
• Aid is 'fungible' - it is easy to manipulate. Such describes in part the success of corrupt leaders and dictators who store the money for their own needs in foreign banks, ignoring the population it was in fact intended for. Aid thus also fosters a military culture, and increases the risk of corruption - if the people "in charge" have access to the money, people will fight for these positions and seek to dominate others. As the rich get richer, the poor get poorer.  
• Foreign aid short-circuits the power of the middle class both in their existence, and in their ability to hold the government accountable for the expenditure of funds. So aid encourages a lack of transparency (opacity).
• Aid reduces Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into African countries as potential investors are wary of the over-dependency upon aid.
• Aid leads to a cycle of inflation, and reduces the competitiveness of exports. Think the Dutch Disease.
• Africans are squeezed out of managing themselves by aid-dependency.  Aid could effectively be seen as a way for the old colonial powers to retain a political hold over African countries.

There are four elements constituting Moyo's replacement of aid:

1. The Bond Market
2. FDI - linked with the current investment in Africa by Asia, specifically China.
3. Trade
4. Banking on the Unbankable - Grameen Bank structure (i.e. micro-lending), Kiva, remittances, and saving.

Of all the constituents suggested by Moyo, I found FDI and Banking on the Unbankable most convincing and sustainable in a way accessible to Africa as it is in its current state. It may just be that my limited understanding of economics means I don't totally comprehend her propositions, but I wasn't as convinced by the Bond Market in terms of accessibility for the majority of African countries; it may be suitable in the future, but as an immediate and sustainable solution, it appears to carry too many risks to be effective with the level of economic and political development held by most African countries at present. At the time of the novel's publication (2009), Africa formed just 1% of world trade, despite its large population and richness in commodities (see page 118). One of Moyo's suggestions hinted at greater trade both within African countries as well as between them and other countries; such would require a reduction in trade barriers and tariffs, improvements to infrastructure in Africa so as to increase accessibility, in addition to perhaps the formation of a system such as the EU. Although this suggestion connotes multiple opportunities for growth and development, and hints at being sustainable in the long term for Africa, it may not be so in the short term nor for other countries. Again, like the Bond Market, I found the idea may be better proposed once Africa has established a steady growth rate with a low dependency upon foreign aid. The two ideas I did however engage with, were those of FDI and Banking on the Unbankable (as aforementioned). Both seem both accessible and effective in the short term, as well as sustainable in the long term on a local, national and international level.

 

After reading Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles by Richard Dowden, I was convinced that China's growing role in Africa was nothing other than unsustainable and self-concerned. Unlike Dowden's largely negative depiction of Chinese investment in Africa, Moyo's is one largely of praise. Looking back at both comparatively, each present a rather tainted and biased perception - one focuses almost exclusively on the negative implications, and the other on the positive implications. But looking at them both together, a less biased and more effective summative view can be concluded. I still think that elements of the Chinese investment into Africa are unsustainable - largely the neglect of environmental measures and the predominant use of Chinese labour rather than native, as well as the self-serving motivation of investing in commodities for themselves - but on the whole, if such issues were rectified, Chinese investment may be on the whole rather more preferable to that of the aid-obsessed West. Moyo points out quite frankly that whereas the West views Africa as a helpless child, Asia sees it as a less fortunate equal with opportunities for the future; on page 110, Moyo points out numerous surveys revealing that on the whole, Africans view Asian investment as preferable and better than that of America or the West. I can see where they're coming from: whilst the West supplies aid, most of which is never seen or experienced by the population, Asia cuts this manipulative switch in the circuit and builds the infrastructure, supplies the tools, and engages with trade. Asia is acting, the West is stalling. As to the sustainability of Asia's role in African development, I agree with Moyo's opinion that it is up to African governments to step in and regulate challenges of Asian FDI, for Africans to actively engage with the investment and take control of their future. Many have begun to do so, brightening the future of their development greatly. Something which sprung to my mind when reading of Asian FDI in Africa was, 'why doesn't the West then invest the money they're sending over as concessional aid in other ways? Why not use the money to build the infrastructure and services, or buy local produce and distribute it to those who need it?'. Obviously there arises the question of a lack of sustainability and local investment into these services; but utilizing would-be-concessional-aid money in ways such as Asian FDI may be a viable alternative.  

 

"To the Excellencies and officials of Europe: We suffer enormously in Africa. Help us. We have problems in Africa. We lack rights as children. We have war and illness, we lack food... We want to study, and we ask you to help us study so we can be like you, in Africa."

 

- Message found on the bodies of Guinean teenagers, Yaguine Koita and Fode Tounkara, stowaways who died attempting to reach Europe in the landing gear of an airliner.

      

The question remains: who is it that has to act and extricate Africa from aid's central position of dominance? Moyo argues that seeing as the West were the ones to introduce the problem of aid, they should be the ones to stop it. I think it falls to both Africans and non-Africans; it's an international responsibility, although obviously, some are more accountable than others. In order to be effective and sustainable on all fronts, the decision to cut concessional aid and focus on other developmental methods needs to be a cooperation between Africans and Westerners. Yes, the responsibility of terminating aid needs to come from and be acted upon by the West, but the movement towards other methods will be unachievable and pointless without African cooperation.

"It's time to stop pretending that the aid-based development model currently in place will generate sustained economic growth in the world's poorest countries. It will not. The question is how do we get African countries to abandon foreign aid and embrace the Dead Aid proposal? They can do it voluntarily - as South Africa or Botswana have done - but what if they don't, choosing the soft option of aid instead? [...] What if, one by one, African countries each received a phone call (agreed upon by all their major aid donors - the World Bank, Western countries, etc.), telling them that in exactly five years the aid taps would be shut off - permanently? Although exceptions would be made for isolated emergency relief such as famine and natural disasters, aid would no longer attempt to address Africa's generic economic plight. What would happen? Would many more millions in Africa die from poverty and hunger? Probably not - the reality is that Africa's poverty-stricken don't see the aid flows anyway. Would there be more wars, more coups, more despots? Doubtful - without aid, you are taking away a big incentive for conflict. Would roads, schools and hospitals cease being built? Unlikely. What do you think Africans would do if aid were stopped, simply carry on as usual? Too many African countries have already hit rock bottom - ungoverned, poverty-stricken, and lagging further and further behind the rest of the world each day; there is nowhere further down to go. Isn't it more likely that in a world freed of aid, economic life for the majority of Africans might actually improve, that corruption would fall, entrepreneurs would rise, and Africa's growth engine would start chugging? This is the most probably outcome - that where the real change exists to make a better life for themselves, their children and Africa's future generations, Africans would grab it and go. If other countries around the developing world have done it sans aid (generated consistent growth, raised incomes and rescued billions from the brink of poverty), why not Africa? Remember that just thirty years ago Malawi, Burundi and Burkina Faso were economically ahead of China on a per capita income basis. A dramatic turnaround is always possible." - pages 144/145

 As the African proverb cited at the novel's conclusion says, the best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second-best time is now.

Until next time,
C 

P.s. (31st Oct) - this was in the news this morning: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29843938. 

#13 Palin - Full Circle

"The Pacific Ocean covers one-third of the world's surface and around it lives one-third of the world's population. Its 70 million square miles of water spill onto the shores of a richly contrasting assortment of countries. Some are global giants - Russia, China, Japan and the United States. Others, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Chile and Canada, are becoming increasingly important and influential. The coastline that unites them is now more than just a physical entity. It is a political and economic state of mind, called, for want of something more poetic, the Pacific Rim. Experts predict that the Pacific Rim will be the power-house of the twenty-first century. Commentators point to the final decline of the Mediterranean-Atlantic axis which has dominated the world these past two thousand years. The future, we are told, belongs to the other side of the earth. The Pacific century is about to begin." - page 5

Full Circle - Michael Palin

Another post, another book by Palin. However, you may all breathe a sigh of relief; this is the last book of his in my collection (as of yet).

'Full Circle' depicts Palin's circular (for want of a less repetitive word) journey around the Pacific Rim, through eighteen countries bordering the Pacific ocean; Alaska (USA), Russia, Japan, Korea, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, the USA, and finally, Canada. His writing is, as usual, both stimulating and engaging, a mix of personal insights, factual references and secondary observations. Unfortunately, towards the latter third of the novel his travel-weariness began to translate into his writing (I don't particularly blame him - 245 days of travelling across different environments, altitudes, cultures etc.), reducing the ease of reading. [It could hence be said however, that he very effectively conveys the experience of travel!] Thus, of his books, 'Himalaya' remains my current favourite. For me, Palin's observations from Russia to Indonesia were most captivating; firstly given his focus on the notorious physical nature of these areas, and secondly given his political focus within said areas.

"The valley consists of a series of narrow fissures opened up by a fault line, through which steaming hot water from nearby volcanic systems emerges in various ways, ranging from the impressive to the frankly theatrical. You can almost set your watch by the great spout they call Velican (the Giant). This shoots a plume of boiling water almost 100 feet high, once every three hours. Sergei, checking his watch, leads me right up to the blow-hole. I peer down 35 feet into the earth's crust. An ominous bronchial wheezing rises from the darkness, as if the earth itself is not at all well.

A path leads along by the river to a gorge, one whole side of which is punctured by dozens of horizontal geysers. Some spurt neatly out over the river, others wildly loose off in all directions. The entire 200-foot cliff wall emits a great wheezing chorus of steam which reminds me of King's Cross station in the 1950's. On our way back we pass other delights such as the Gates of Hell - two dark chambers whose cavernous entrances can be glimpsed only briefly through the clouds of foul-smelling sulphurous mist that guard them. Nothing is safe and sound and settled here; the earth seems to be in perpetual motion. This is nature at its most extravagant, melodramatic and bizarre." - page 31

Side note: how great is Palin's personification of nature? His allusions really bring the depictions to life (giving me a strong dose of wanderlust on the side).

Coinciding especially with the first segment (as aforementioned) of his journey is the infamous Ring of Fire - a horseshoe shaped outline surrounding the edges of the Pacific and Nazca Plates, notoriously seismically active. The seismic activity of this ring elucidates the presence of numerous volcanoes as well as earthquakes; in fact, over 75% of the world's active and dormant volcanoes are located here. Such stems from the activity on-going along the boundaries of the Pacific plate, predominantly that of Subduction.  

The way Palin illustrates the environment surrounding him is to effectively transport our eyes, our ears and our noses to the moment frozen in textual time, such that we acknowledge the life of earth; her breath, her speech, and her beauty. One thing I love about travel writing is the subjective observational desriptions of nature. In textbooks, the given desriptions are as two-dimensional as the accompanying pictures; they don't portray the archaic power of the things they depict, they merely underline black and white facts to be learnt. With personal insight and unique descriptions, as seen by Palin's writing on page 31, I grow more enamoured with and alert to just how amazing the world actually is. Exploring my current A2 topic of Plate Tectonics further through documentaries, articles and travel writing, mundane study areas like volcanoes no longer seem so repetitively boring. The earth is a living, breathing environment. Volcanoes, mountains and earthquakes are evidence of its life. If for nothing else, read 'Full Circle' for Palin's captivating illustrations of the environment in this particulalry active region of the world.     

It was also interesting to read of the ways in which different societies and cultures respond to the seismicity of the areas, and how reflective this is of their respective levels of economic development. For most, the volcanoes are used with the notion of tourism in mind. For wealthier countries like Russia, large sections of the land are cordoned off as nature reserves, utilised explicitly for scientific study and tourism; for less economically developed countries like Indonesia, they are incorporated more directly into everyday life, with fertile surrounding fields used for agricultural farming, the draw of the activity used for tourism and hence forth. In terms of earthquakes, the variation between magnitude and duration/intensity of destruction in relation to economic development, although less explicitly touched upon by Palin, is worth reading into (think the Mercalli and Richter scales). Take for example, the 2010 earthquakes of Chile and Haiti. In Chile, a MEDC, an 8.8 magnitude earthquake killed about 700 people, whereas the Haitian (LEDC) earthquake of magnitude 7, killed approximately 200,000 (both magnitudes are with regards to the Richter scale). Such stems predominantly from the countries' respective levels of economic development; although the magnitude of the Chilean earthquake was greater than that of the Haitian one, the resultant destruction was comparably much less, given the higher level of preparedness and preparation. With greater economic wealth, prediction tools such as seismic monitors are more accessible moreover scientifically viable, modifications to buildings and infrastructure are more easily implemented alongside strict construction rules, and the compulsory use of education and drills in schools or workplaces is arguably more effective consequently. Magnitude = level of destruction. 

"The water puppet theatre reminds me once again of the heady pace of political change in Asia. Twenty-three years ago the Americans were raining bombs down on this city. Now a show which celebrates the resilience of the peasants who defeated them is sponsored by AT&T, one of the largest companies in the USA." - page 114/115

I have always been interested in the two world wars (note: the above quote refers rather to the Vietnam war), particularly in the socio-political effect they had in the short term, and continue to have in the long term, 100/69 years later. Two years ago I went on a trip to Berlin and Poland in study of the WW2 Holocaust, following the development of it from its conception in Berlin to its implementation at Auschwitz-Birkenau in Poland itself, amidst reference to the present repercussions. I cannot verbally express the worth of such a trip; it is eye-opening, stimulating and important. It is so relevant, especially with regard to future generations as first-hand recounts and evidence grow thinner. Despite all the countless books and articles I had read, documentaries and movies I had watched, and museums I had visited, I had never before been exposed to the reality of the wars' continued effect on the world. Such is evidenced clearly (although not exclusively) in the demographics of both Germany and Poland's current populations. Germany now famously suffers from an ageing population, with a rapidly declining birth rate in addition to labour force, predominantly high out-migration levels and many areas that have fallen into a state of decline. Poland too has demographically suffered, with an imbalanced, unsustainable population pyramid; it too experiences high out-migration levels, particularly in the male cohort, leaving a sexually imbalanced and highly dependant demographic structure.* Socio-political effects may also be seen in the confounding stigma surrounding both countries, stemming from their previous political constitutions. Hence, I thoroughly enjoyed Palin's exploration into the socio-political effects of wars in 'Full Circle'. Amongst other examples, he writes of the sustained impact of the second world war on Nagasaki and Hiroshima (Japan), the subsequent and juxtaposing divisions within Korea, the growing understanding and response to Communism in China, and the socio-political relevance of the Vietnam war in Vietnamese society. Whilst some countries like China have excelled since the wars, in facets not exclusive to socio-political ones, other areas have dismally failed and continue to suffer negative implications. For the former group of areas, the war seems to have been utilized as a motivational driving factor for development, whilst for the latter, it continues to hold a socio-political polluting presence in the air. The relationship between Geographies of different periods, such as focusing on wars, is an area of Geography I fervently look forward to exploring with greater depth in the future. For those interested: the History channel is currently running a documentary series focusing on WW1 and 2 predominantly politically, called 'The World Wars'. It deserves a 5/5 rating.

Palin's opening point about these countries being the next global rulers is interesting to compare to how the (nearly) two decades following his book's publication (1997) have unfolded. For some countries, such a prophesy has been recognised, with China undeniably leading the way. For others, like Indonesia and Bolivia, their positions remain more statical. The role of geopolitics in determining these outcomes is equally intriguing. 

A concluding insight into my reading pile, which slowly continues to grow in height by my desk (I enjoy composing lists, in case you haven't thus realised!):

1. Alone in Berlin - Hans Fallada
2. Dead Aid - Dambisa Moyo
3. GeoPolitics: a very short introduction - Klaus Dodds
4. Quiet: the power of introverts in a world that can't stop talking - Susan Cain
5. Space and Place - Yi-fu Tuan

Until next time,
C  

   

* That is not to say that the demographics of Germany and Poland are explicitly and exclusively resultant of the wars. Rather, the wars arguably presented both indirect and direct catalysts for such, by (for example) changing economic structure and stability, socially altering morals and roles, moreover resulting directly in huge numbers of deaths and relocated refugees. 

FFT (6) Is Global Warming a myth?

We are obsessed with our own manipulative utilization of nature to expound upon our needs and feelings. Lovers of words dedicate years to understanding the emotive metaphorical allusions of pathetic fallacy created by previous lovers of words; scientists and literal thinkers dedicate lives to manipulating the earth into providing the needs of those populating it; early risers and late risers dedicate coffee-fuelled mornings listening to the weather forecast and deciding upon outfits, watching the news and deploring over nature's effect on humanity. I lie on my bed as evening passes and morning is born, searching for co-existence within these two drifting worlds. The industrialised, bustling and busy beating of humanity slows to a whisper as the blanket of night warms it to sleep, and the magical yawns of nature fill the air as the world herself awakens from the superimposed sleep of mankind. Out of her slumber she emerges with songs translated and reproduced by humanity's best composers, lights and colours attempted by their best artists, stories reinterpreted by their best story tellers. She was alive before the conception of time; breathing before man's first breath; supporting life before the first child wailed in the orange haze of the afternoon sun. 

And yet with humanity's progress and development, she has been forgotten. Suppressed. Owned. Humanity no longer has time for her beauty and power. There are other worlds to visit and conquer. It is the utilization of her beauty and power to fulfill their whimsical desires and needs that is of importance. Nature has been underestimated. 

The world is awake and alive. Fuelling our hedonistic obsession with self-fulfillment, nature is responding with her own pathetic fallacy. Seas are drinking islands and coastlines; storms are consuming infrastructural entities; heat is cancerously tanning farmlands. 'The world' as a term copiously connotes both humanity as a population, and the earth herself. It is not a constitutional ideology of two seperate spheres; it is one. Whole. A unified depiction. What has been lost is the unification. 

I wonder. Do we, society, ever stop to think? Close our eyes, breathe in the earth and open with eyes untainted by egotistic lenses? Society is an extension of ourselves; we all, individually, constitute and validate societal ignorance. The earth is alerting us of the need to change. To unify. Nature is not to be controlled nor extricated; it is to co-exist with. Amongst. 

As the human world awakens once more, subconsciously forcing the natural to sleep, will we continue to obssess over our manipulated interpretation of nature? Or pay attention to the growing whisper of the inspiration behind the studied pathetic fallacies, the source of the scientific studies, the curator of our news; the environment? 

Is Global Warming/Climate Change a myth? Or is this a manipulated view which suits our sedentary preference for not having to actively change and accept our wrongs? 

Read William D. Nordhaus' article, 'Why the Global Warming Skeptics Are Wrong', and the findings of researchers at the University of Cambridge ('Greenland Ice Sheet More Vulnerable to Climate Change than Previously Thought'), especially in light of the recent Climate Change marches and the sporadic weather of the UK, and three things gain momentum in your mind: 

1. This is a very real thing.

2. Those, like me, who seemingly don't contribute dramatically are just as guilty as those who explicitly contribute to the problems. It is not merely an objective issue, but a subjective one too. 

3. This is environmentally, socially, economically, politically, UTTERLY unsustainable.

  A rather more poetic post than usual, but I feel sometimes that in issues so publicised as Global Warming, facts and figures become exhausted. (Plus, I was in a literary mood after reading Palin's beautiful depictions of nature in his novel 'Full Circle'). I in no way meant to subjectively romanticise the issue in any facet. 

The intricately dynamic relationship between Physical and Human Geography is something that enthuses me endlessly. I hope that the denial of this relationship is dispelled, especially in areas of immediate concern like Climate Change. 

Until next time, 

C

FFT (5) Let's talk about Ebola

Is the Ebola outbreak so bad because it's in Africa?

 

Question: what is Ebola?

 

Unless you've been living in a bubble of your own, I'm sure you'll have heard of the recent Ebola outbreak in Western Africa, specifically concentrated in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. The outbreak began in Guinea in December 2013, and was formally pronounced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 8 August this year (2014). As of this month, WHO estimates that around 8,000 cases (approximately 3,439 deaths) have been diagnosed, making it the most severe outbreak since the virus' discovery in 1973. The Ebola virus is thought to have originated from fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family. It is introduced into the human population via close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected animals, and is then transmitted from human-to-human through direct contact with blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, in addition to surfaces and materials contaminated with these fluids. Current research suggests that the virus has a fatality rate of 50%. [For further information on Ebola, see here.] 

 

Question: is the outbreak restricted to African countries?

 

Although predominantly concentrated in Western Africa, there have been a handful of cases in America and Europe - but it should be noted that these people have travelled/worked in said infected African countries.

 

Question: so what impact has the location had upon the virus?

 

Not so much on the virus, as upon its scale. I think that the virus has been exaggerated in both its size and effect by its location in Africa; specifically in consequence of the level of economic development as well as the socio-political culture of the countries. To illustrate my point, I'll focus explicitly on Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. Compare the UK GDP of 2.522 trillion USD (2013) to those of the three aforementioned countries and you get a stark juxtaposition: Guinea boasts a mere 6.193 billion USD (2013), whilst Liberia and Sierra Leone herald only 1.591 billion USD and 4.292 billion USD (both 2013) respectively. The level of economic wealth and development in turn validates the quality and accessibility of infrastructure and services in the country. With such low GDPs, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia all have sparse accessibility to sufficient health care in addition to education regarding the virus, hence are greatly reliant upon external aid. Without these vital facilities, the spread of the virus is both accelerated and magnified beyond easy containment. Were the virus to have broken out in a more economically developed country such as the UK, although the location would have obviously had no effect on the nature of Ebola itself, its spread may have been contained with greater ease and efficiency, thereby reducing the fatality rate.

Equally important, though less predominantly so, is the influence of the socio-political culture of the outbreak's location. In several African cultures, the orthodox treatment for diseases lies in the trust of Witch doctors, otherwise known as traditional healers; consequently, many people have turned to these sources for treatment, which, more often than not, are unreliable. In the rejection of Western aid and health care to treat the virus, with large numbers turning to witch craft - some have even been reported to believe that the disease is a fictitious feat of Western governments, a conspiracy of something non-existent against the Africans - both the spread and fatality of Ebola is amplified. Another socio-political barrier to containing the virus easily is the level of ignorance (this is linked to the aforementioned point, but contextually different in constituents). In Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the average adult literacy rate is 42.4% (the UK equivalent is 99%). This figure is directly linked to the provision of education for the population, thus where the figure is low, such as is the case in these three countries, the number of qualified health care workers in addition to people who are knowledgeable (about things such as health taught by education) is minimal. Not only has this increased the reliance upon external aid (which, linked with the stigma around Western influence has negative implications for the spread of the virus (not for the virus itself though - this is a cause for celebration in viral land!)), but it has also inadvertently exaggerated the prevalence rate of Ebola as often people who want to help lack the skills/knowledge to do so, moreover individuals themselves lack the understanding to minimise the risk of contraction.

Question: so it's the African's own fault that the epidemic is so bad?

 

No. Absolutely not. The epidemic has merely been exaggerated as a result of the level of economic development of the countries, which is not blameable upon the African's themselves in its entirety. The level of economic (and it is important to recognise that it is economic and perhaps also political development, not other forms of development - although it can be argued that other developmental levels, such as the nature of the social development - which in itself is not bad, but the conventions such as large families and communal housing may exaggerate the spread of the disease - have contributed to Ebola's spread) development itself can be traced back to other factors and influences. Just read my last post on 'Africa' by Richard Dowden.

 

Side note #1: There were so many tangents in that bracket that I've lost my train of thought. My mind must seem as overactive as Briony's in McEwan's 'Atonement'!

 

Question: Okay. Let's say that the virus broke out in the UK.

Would it have a fatality rate of 0% then?

 

Not necessarily. Although the provision of, standard of, and accessibility to health care is substantially better than that in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, that does not explicitly pertain to the disease being completely under control. It should be noted that although many are currently in development, there is presently no proven vaccine/cure for Ebola. Were the virus to have broken out in the UK, rather than Africa, the spread may arguably have been reduced given less social stigma regarding reality and treatment in addition to a greater availability of facilities to strictly control it.

 

Question: So, conclusively, Ebola currently has no cure and is concentrated largely, though not exclusively in Western Africa. Its prevalence and effect is not so bad as it is because it is in Africa, but rather both have been arguably exaggerated by its location in Africa, resulting from the level of economic development and socio-political responses to the virus in said affected countries?

 

Or so I believe. What do you think?

 

Following the Ebola outbreak via the news, sitting half-awake in the common room at 7:45am each morning, eyes poring over my BBC News app, I've been fascinated by the frequent mention of social stigma and resources related to levels of economic development and their relationship to the virus. I couldn't stop making all these arbitrary, subjective links between things I had read, hence decided to transform the conversation within my mind into pixels on the internet for others to engage with.

 

Until next time,

C

 

Side note #2: A stimulating documentary for those interested in the relationship between physical and human Geography... or just the explosive potential of volcanoes - How The Earth Works: Will Iceland Poison the Skies? It follows the Eyjafjallajokull, Katla and Laki volcanoes, all situated in Iceland. Plus, the constant struggle of the commentators to efficiently pronounce 'Eyjafjallajokull' provides plentiful entertainment for rainy Monday evenings.